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Abstract

Background: Egypt has the highest hepatitis C virus (HCV) prevalence in the world. Numerous HCV prevalence studies have published various estimates from different Egyptian communities, suggesting that Egypt, relative to the other nations of the world, might be experiencing an intense ongoing HCV transmission. Objective: To investigate the trend in HCV prevalence among the general population in Egypt with respect to time. Methods: We conducted a time-trend analysis to assess the trend in HCV prevalence using a multivariate linear regression model and adjusting for the different sub-groups in the general population. Data used for this analysis were extracted from relevant studies identified via a systematic review of HCV in Egypt. Results: Our results suggest that there is no evidence of a statistically significant decline in HCV prevalence over time (p-value: 0.572). HCV prevalence in the general population declined at a rate of only -0.11% per year (95% CI: -0.49 to 0.27). Conclusions: Our results do not support a decline in HCV prevalence over the last two decades even though Egypt's population has nearly doubled in the past two to three decades. This suggests that substantial HCV transmission might be still ongoing today. Policymakers, and public health and medical care stakeholders need to introduce and implement further prevention measures targeting the routes of HCV transmission in this country.

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/content/papers/10.5339/qfarf.2012.BMP5
2012-10-01
2019-11-18
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http://instance.metastore.ingenta.com/content/papers/10.5339/qfarf.2012.BMP5
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