1887
Volume 2025, Issue 1
  • EISSN: 2223-506X

Abstract

This article is an Arabic translation of the original English article published on 25 March 2025 in Cogent Economics & Finance 2025, 13(1). DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2025.2480641

تستعرض هذه الدراسة كيفية تأثير الطلب على الواردات في دولة قطر عبر ستة عشر قطاعاً اقتصادياً، باستخدام النهج البايزي، وبالاعتماد على بيانات سنوية؛ لتقدير مرونة الأسعار، ومرونة الدخل، ومرونة أسعار النفط. وتُظْهِر النتائج أن الطلب على الواردات يتسم -في الغالب- بعدم المرونة السعرية (من 0.079− إلى 0.21−) ، وهو ما يعكس اعتماد الدولة الكبير على السلع المستوردة، نظراً إلى محدودية البدائل المحلية. وعلى النقيض من ذلك، تتسم مرونة الدخل بارتفاعها (من 4.582 إلى 6.353) ، مما يشير إلى أن الطلب على الواردات يتوسع بشكل ملحوظ مع ارتفاع مستويات الدخل. وعلاوة على ذلك، تؤثر أسعار النفط إيجابياً في الطلب على الواردات في قطاعات مثل المعادن والآلات/الأجهزة الكهربائية، حيث تدل هذه العلاقة على أن ارتفاع أسعار النفط، الذي يقترن عادةً بزيادة الإيرادات الحكومية، يؤدي إلى تنامي الطلب على الواردات في القطاعات المرتبطة بالبنية التحتية والتنمية الصناعية. غير أن هذا الاعتماد على إيرادات النفط ينطوي على مخاطر اقتصادية ناجمة عن التقلبات المحتملة في أسعار النفط. وتتوافق هذه النتائج مع ما توصلت إليه دراسات أُجريت على اقتصادات أخرى تعتمد على النفط، مثل المملكة العربية السعودية، والكويت، والإمارات العربية المتحدة، حيث تؤثر أسعار النفط بوضوح في الطلب على الواردات، غير أنها تختلف عن حالة النرويج، حيث أسهمت فيها آليات صناديق الثروة السيادية في استقرار أنماط التجارة في مواجهة تقلبات أسعار النفط.

تُعَدّ هذه الدراسة مساهمة جديدة؛ لكونها الأولى التي تُحلل دالة الطلب على الواردات متعددة القطاعات في قطر باستخدام الإطار البايزي، إذ تقدم تقديرات دقيقة للمرونة، وتوصيات للسياسات الاقتصادية. وتشير النتائج إلى أن السياسات المعتمِدة على الأسعار وحدها لا تكفي للتحكم في حجم الواردات، الأمر الذي يستلزم المزيد من الإصلاحات الاقتصادية الهيكلية، مثل التنويع، وتعزيز الإنتاج المحلي. وإضافةً إلى ذلك، تتطلب مرونة الدخل المرتفع استثمارات استراتيجية في البنية التحتية، ولا سيما في مجال الخدمات اللوجستية التجارية ومرافق الموانئ، لمواكبة الزيادة المتوقعة في حجم الواردات مع النمو الاقتصادي.

This study examines Qatar’s import demand function across sixteen economic sectors, employing a Bayesian approach to estimate the price, income and oil price elasticities. The findings reveal that import demand is predominantly price inelastic (−0.079 to −0.21), reflecting the country’s heavy reliance on imported goods due to limited domestic alternatives. In contrasts, income elasticities are highly elastic (4.582 to 6.353), indicating that import demand rises sharply with increasing income levels. Additionally, oil prices positively influence import demand in sectors such as Metals and Machinery/Electrical, highlighting that higher oil prices, which typically correlate with increased government revenues, lead to higher industrial imports. However, this dependence on oil revenues poses economic vulnerabilities due to oil price fluctuations. Comparisons with oil-dependent economies such as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the UAE confirm this pattern, whereas Norway’s sovereign wealth mechanisms mitigate such volatility. The findings indicate that price-based policies (e.g. tariffs) alone are insufficient to manage import volumes, emphasizing the need for structural economic reforms including diversification and enhanced domestic production. Given the high-income elasticities, strategic infrastructure investments in trade logistics and port facilities, are crucial to handle growing import volumes. Finally, by drawing parallels with other resource-rich economies, this research provides broader policy insights for oil exporting nations, stressing diversification, fiscal stabilization and trade resilience.

© 2025 The Author(s), licensee HBKU Press.
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2025-09-30
2025-12-13

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تأثير أسعار النفط على الطلب على الواردات في دولة غنية بالنفط: النهج البايزي متعدد القطاعات
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  • Article Type: Research Article
Keyword(s): import demand, price elasticity, income elasticity, Bayesian estimation, multisectoral analysis, trade policy and الطلب على الواردات، أسعار النفط، مرونة الأسعار، مرونة الدخل، التقدير البايزي، دولة قطر، التحليل متعدد القطاعات، سياسة التجارة، التخطيط الاقتصادي.

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